U.S. natural gas prices likely to remain elevated through the winter

In our October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that natural gas spot prices at the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub will average $5.67 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) between October and March, the highest winter price since 2007–2008. The increase in Henry Hub prices in recent months and in our forecast reflect below-average storage levels heading into the winter heating season and strong demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), even though we've seen relatively slow growth in U.S. natural gas production. We expect Henry Hub prices will decrease after the first quarter of 2022, as production growth outpaces growth in LNG exports, and will average $4.01/MMBtu for the year.