EIA projects global conventional vehicle fleet will peak in 2038

In our International Energy Outlook 2021, we estimate the global light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet contained 1.31 billion vehicles in 2020, and we project this fleet will grow to 2.21 billion vehicles by 2050. We project electric vehicles (EVs)—any LDV with a charging plug—will grow from 0.7% of the global LDV fleet in 2020 to 31% in 2050, reaching 672 million vehicles. Significant growth in EV sales and shares of sales through the projection period results in the global conventional gasoline and diesel LDV fleet peaking in 2038.