EIA forecasts OPEC production will grow in 2022 despite recent production outages in Libya

In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast that OPEC petroleum production will increase by nearly 2.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2022, the largest year-over-year increase in OPEC production since 2004. This increase in our forecast of crude oil production is largely based on our interpretation of the January 2022 OPEC+ meeting, when participants reaffirmed their decision to continue to increase output by 0.4 million b/d each month until all of the production cuts are reversed. We expect that recent production disruptions in Libya will be more than offset by production increases from other OPEC members.