Brent crude oil price forecast to average $72 per barrel in the second half of 2021

In the July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast the Brent crude oil price will average $72 per barrel (b) in the second half of 2021 (2H21) and $67/b in 2022, both $6/b higher than in the June STEO forecast. We revised global production down by 210,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2H21, leading to larger forecast inventory draws in 2H21 and smaller forecast inventory builds in 2022, which contributes to the increased price forecast.